The economic squeeze means 2009 will be a tough year for innovation. But many of today's biggest companies were formed during recessions.

There are good reasons to expect 2009 to be a tough year for innovation. Consumers and corporations are likely to continue to tighten their collective belts, raising the innovation bar substantially.

Hope isn't lost, however. A surprising number of great companies, like General Electric, IBM, Kraft, McDonald's, Walt Disney, and Electronic Arts, were formed in years that featured a recession.

Tough economic times didn't stop the introduction of game-changing innovations like IBM's personal computer, Apple's iPod, Campbell's condensed soup and McDonald's "Speedee Service."

Scarcity forces a focus on developing creative ways to deliver customer value. It requires companies to shut down bad ideas early. In other words, today's tough economic times will force innovators to do what they should have been doing already.

Innovation has never been more important. Success in what we are calling the Great Disruption requires mastering perpetual transformation. It requires spotting--and disarming--previously hidden attackers early and pouncing on opportunities before competitors. Some companies are in a particularly good position to thrive in the tough economic climate.

High-end companies that have not further filled out their product line offering will have the unenviable challenge of trying to crack into increasingly crowded market tiers. If forced scarcity coupled with a clear need does lead to increasingly disciplined innovation efforts, it could mark a turning point in the innovation movement.

2009 might be remembered as the year in which innovation shed its reputation for randomness and unpredictability. As long as there are problems to be solved, there will be innovators to solve them. Companies that use the current tough times as an excuse to de-emphasize innovation are going to severely regret it.